Joseph Biden słynie w Ameryce z doświadczenia w sprawach międzynarodowych i kwiecistości języka.
Był zatem idealną osobą do wykonania wcale niełatwego zadania, jakim było przytulenie roztrzęsionego polskiego sojusznika do piersi. Gwałtowna reakcja Polski na decyzję administracji Baracka Obamy o zmianie koncepcji tarczy nieco zaniepokoiła Amerykanów, do których dotarło, że o potrzeby emocjonalne przyjaciół trzeba dbać. Stąd misja Bidena. – Polska jest wzorem dla świata – powtarzał wiceprezydent USA w Warszawie.
W odpowiedzi polskie władze wypowiedziały wczoraj głośne „tak” dla nowej amerykańskiej propozycji mimo związanych z nią niejasności. I słusznie. Wbrew dramatycznym doniesieniom o końcu polsko-amerykańskiego sojuszu ma się on całkiem nieźle. Powinniśmy zatem współpracować z sojusznikiem w imię przyjaźni i wspólnych interesów. Ważne tylko, byśmy przy tym dbali o własne.
Powstanie baz wyrzutni SM-3 może być ostatecznie dla Polski korzystniejsze niż realizacja wcześniejszych planów, kłopot w tym, że wciąż jest to sprawa odległa. Do czasu realizacji tego planu wiele może się wydarzyć zarówno w polityce amerykańskiej, jak i międzynarodowej.
Mówiąc Amerykanom – szczerze i uczciwie – że jesteśmy gotowi gościć ich system antyrakietowy, powinniśmy zatem szukać także innych ścieżek rozwoju naszej współpracy z USA. Tak by tarcza nie przesłaniała wszystkiego innego. Jak powiedział sam Biden w wywiadzie dla „Rz”: „Jestem przekonany, że silny sojusz między Stanami Zjednoczonymi i Polską będzie się nadal umacniał i przybierał nowe kierunki”. Czekamy na nowe kierunki.
@Lestek
Niemcy i Rosja mają wspólny cel strategiczny – odzyskać status mocarstw I-szej ligi światowej. Do tej pory blokowały ich Stany. Ale „restet” to jest zmiana strategii amerykańskiej w skali globalnej. Ponieważ Rosja ma swoje strategiczne cele w Europie, i współpracuje w ich osiągnięciu z Niemcami, to brak reakcji na inwazję Gruzji i aneksje części jej terytorium, oraz obecny „reset” to sa sygnały świadczące o tym, że sytuacja geopolityczna Polski staje się krytyczna.
Jeśli ktoś tego nie dostrzega, to znaczy że można mu przyłożyć lufę do skroni, a on nadal będzie myślał że to żarty. Tymczasem Żarty dawno się skończyły.
Ostatecznym potwierdzeniem mocarstwowej pozycji Rosji i Niemiec MUSI być likwidacja niepodległości Polski, bowiem pomiędzy mocarstwami które wzajemnie uznają swój status po prostu NIE MOŻE BYĆ PAŃSTW IM NIEPODLEGŁYCH.
Samo ich istnienie podważałoby ich pozycję, która służy nie tylko zaspokojeniu ambicji, ale jest też zródłem wymiernych korzyści gospodarczych. W logice mocarstw mniejsze państwa muszą mieć status satelitów, należeć do jakiegoś układu. Tolerownie polskiej niepodległości mogłoby być (z ich punktu widzenia i zgodnie z mocarstwowa logika) groznym precedensem, zarazliwym przykładem, potencjalnym zródłem chaosu i anarchii w Europie.
Wszystkim zwolennikom utrzymywania przez Polskę dobrych relacji z Niemcami i Rosją, jako warunku naszego bezpieczeństwa, mogę jedynie zadedykować pewne rosyjskie powiedzonko:
„…to jak próbować uprawiać miłość z tygrysem – i śmiesznie, i strasznie”
@Stan
It appears that you might have misunderstood what I had said
I am certain that a total abstention from any, I say, any, unnecessary contacts on governamental levels between your country and Poland is at this time preferable and required.
There are too many practical issues left open that cannot be bridged at this time and too many emotional aspects which do not allow a normal relationship for a time being. Let the respective older generation people in Russia and Poland, that remember the communist times (prior to 1989) and has been fed will historical misperceptions and selectively chosen historical facts. I am not pointing to anything specific on either side. it is just a general statement.
For the younger people the memories are already less acute/personal even today (at least in Poland) and the passage of time will most likely dull down the collective memories.
The commercial relationships, if any will still exist/occur, should be conducted strictly on the arm lenght basis/with no special favors or expectations and preferably no offsets on the political arena.
Regards,
Lestek
@Ernest Treywasz
Rosja nie ma obecnie nic do zaoferowania Polsce lub Polakom a ma zbyt wiele wlasnych klopotow z utrzymaniem tego to co jeszcze jest pod jej kontrola, aby sie jej obawiac na serio.
Jest mozliwe ze w wyniku przesuniec politycznych rosyjsko jezyczne czesci Ukrainy wyoptuja z Ukrainy i przystana do Rosji. Ludzie maja prawo do decydowania o swej przynaleznosci politycznej i nie powinno to byc glowna bolaczka Warszawy.
Niemcy sa bardziej wymiernym problemem, gdyz moga teoretycznie blokowac przez jakis czas rozwoj gospodarczy w Polsce. Takze, jesli warunki ekonomiczne w Europie sie poprawia, gospodarka niemiecka moze sie stac jeszcze wiekszym magnesem dla duzej czesci nadwyzki polskiej sily roboczej, od stosunkowo prostych etatow do bardziej wykwalifikowanych. Tu zakazami czy inna „koercja” nikt nic nie wskora.
Jesliby sie to zdarzylo na masowa skale, to moze to zmienic jeszcze bardziej wewnetrzna dynamike krajow niemiecko-jezycznych, gdyz Zachodnich Slowian jest po prostu za duzo. Bardziej prawdopodobnym scenariuszem bedzie szybki wzrost gospodarczy tez w Polsce, z technologiami albo wlasnymi, albo tymi kilka lat wstecz od tych niemieckich i przejsciowo przynajmniej produkcja komponentow dla niemieckich firm, raczej niz gotowych „brand typu” produktow.
Nastepne pokolenia i w Niemczech i w Polsce zadecyduja jaki bedzie nowy model „modus’u vivendi”. A bedzie to inny wariant od tego co wyobraza sobie starsi czy nawet obecni ludzie w obu krajach.
W Rosji tez rosnie nowe pokolenie o nowym swiatopgladzie. Rosja juz nie jest krajem hermetycznie zamknietym i odizolowanym. Jest rowna szansa na „nowe” z nimi tez, gdy starsze pokolenia po obu stronach odejda, a uwierajace jeszcze obecnie zaszlosci stana sie mniej odczuwalne. Przeplyw czasu jest najlepsza terapia.
Zdaje sobie sprawe ze moze Pan nie byc zbyt zadowolony z mych prognoz i wnioskowan, lecz nie czynie ich aby byc zlosliwy. Po prostu tak widze sprawy.
Pozdrowienia,
Lestek
PS. Uwazam, jak uprzednio, ze uporzdkowanie wlasnego „podworka” jest obecnie/powinjno byc w Polsce/dla Polakow priorytetem. Angazowanie sie w „naprawe” swiata zostawmy na razie innym.
@Ernest Treywasz – thanks for honest answer; pity, forum is bad format for historical and geopolitical discussions (especially among non-professionals like us). Of course the statement that Russia (well, probably, by you opinion, Germany is also guilty…) is exclusively responsible for international conflicts in XX century is naive and dangerous mistake. Dangerous, because person so obsessed by security of his Motherland could have more critical and objective views (realistic evaluation of military potentials doesn’t cover it). You’ll have to see other nation’s reasons and interests and recognize the realities. Or you’ll be repeating the same mistakes again and again and have the opposite result. By my opinion right now Poland as a member of EU and NATO is in the best situation ever. Spending years in the witch hunt and senseless discussions with neighbors you are missing the historical chance. It doesn’t mean what we have to forget and forgive everything; it means that we can try to live by this day for the tomorrow day, not by yesterdays. P.S. By the way – it was a fanny way to stop the “Russian aggression” in 1920 sending troops to foreign territory (Kiev and Minsk), striking to the back country deep in the civil war – bigger part of Red Army was in Siberia, attacking the government which let Poland appeared on the map again.
@Lestek “The commercial relationships, if any will still exist” – by my information RF is a second trade partner for Poland. All the best.
@Stan from Russia
I am reasonably certain that the commercial exchange, apart fro the purchases of crude oil and natural gas (by Poland from Russia), given the geography and the existing pipelines, will tend to decrease in the years to come. Poland does not have any competitive products at this time, that Russia cannot import from somewhere else.
There is also enough of ill will in the top layers of the Russian leadership, and too many unresolved issues in the Polish national consiousness , that the Polish polititians must take under consideration, that make a real „rapprochemont” between Russia and Poland very difficult or even impossible at this time. An open minded approach to the joint issues and individual personal contacts among people of the both nations will most likely dissipate many of these issues and perception in the future. I am coutiously optymistic in regards of a possible outcome here, as nothing stays unchanged forever.
Regards, Lestek
@Stan
„By the way – it was a fanny way to stop the “Russian aggression” in 1920 sending troops to foreign territory (Kiev and Minsk), striking to the back country deep in the civil war – bigger part of Red Army was in Siberia, attacking the government which let Poland appeared on the map again.”
1. Russian goverment did not „let Poland appeared on the map again”, because since 1915 it did not rule over those territories, they were occupied by Germans.
2.Polish Russian war started automatically, when Germans begun to withdraw.Polish forces simply filled the gap, and came into contact with russian forces, so the offensive towards Kiev did not start the war, but was a part of it.
3.The Kiev offensive was taken together with Petlura ukrainien army.As far as I know Ukraine is not Russia. Pilsudski’s goal at this time was so called „federation project” of Ukraine,Belorussia, Poland and Lithuania
4.Pilsudski’s logic behind the Kiev offensive was „we have to beat the Red Army ,before we demobilize, since they will attack us anyway”.Taking into account the revolution in Germany at the same time and the ideas of worldwide revolution in Russia,this is very probable. Anyway it happend 20 years later in 1939.
5.One of the reasons why Pilsudski stopped the offensive, after the battle at Warsaw, was Denikins reluctance to officialy accept the existence of the independent Poland. If not that, bolsheviks may have been crushed in 1920 (by Denikins and polish forces), and a country similar to todays Russia would appear 70 years earlier.
Regards.
@radosny
That’s why I am against all home-made historical discussion.
Sorry for my ironic commentary on Ernest’e posts about 1920. I don’t want to insult no one but the possibility to imitate standard Polish lament about how everybody is wrong and Poland is always right was too strong. Pardon me again, it was cheap. I am not agree with your arguments; every one of them have to be based on original documents and commented by specialist of international law of the period. I am sure the real picture was much more complicated.
All the best.
Hi Stan,
I am about quit this conversation, because it seems, that there is noting to add, actually. I agree, that realismus is allways better than clishes, but the problem is, that our perception of reality seems to be completly differend.
I admit, that Polish military action in 1612 was an agression and occupation of the souverign territory of a naighbour state. We are guilty, although according to my knowdlage, comparing to the standard of the age, you can not blame us for some extra atrocities against civilians, or p.o.w. (contrary to Russians, who killed the whole polish solidiers leaving Kremlin, beaking the terms of capitulation).
Evrything ealse in our relation scince last 300 years makes russian account very, very bad. And contrary to Germans, you (Russians) showed very litlle signs of awarness, what did you do in the past to others, not only to the Poles. And all this, plus your military potential, plus the recent partition of Georgia, plus neverending threats and tryes of submit Ukraina, all this thinks make us very concern and carefull about Russia.
Stan, I’d like to be nice for you so much, but the reality (from our point of view, of course) not allows me to do that. And irony is not the perfect mode of conversation about the past between a ripper and a victom, and this is the nature of historical relations between Russia and Poland during more than last 300 years.
So, if you feels polish emotions and opinions about Russia wrong and unfear, it confirms them even more.
Don’t take it personally, but this is the necessairy explanation of our way of perception of the history, which you obviously do not realise. You keeps superiority in all fields of confrontation between our countries, accept the most importante: the moral, which besed on history.
That’s the reason that we don’t have to lie, and Kremlin lies all the time. History is important, because it is the only what’s remain. It is not only the political weapon (although it is, and very strong weapon btw.). It is something more. Thats the base of dignity, the reason to oppose opression, the source of being proud and determination to remain free.
That’s the reasons, why we can not to give up it. And we will not.
Kinde regards from Warsaw (war-saw)
@Radosny
Bardzo dziękuję za pomoc. Dobrze mieć czasem wsparcie od Kogoś o wyższych kompetencjach językowych i pozostającego w większej zażyłości z Klio
@Lestek
Doceniam trafność i wnikliwość obserwacji w niektórych szczegółach, we wnioskach ostatecznych faktycznie różnimy sie zasadniczo.
Z poważaniem
ET
@Ernest Treywasz – for interpretation of history – I can only repeat my last post; for your general evaluation of the situation – pity, it’s self-destructing and wrong for your country not for mine. Even if you’ll be absolutly right about eternaly evil Russia and we will not waist time for absurd scenario of future Chinese expansion etc, what you’ll be doing? Built a wall or replace Poland somethere close to Arkansas? Send Russia by some misterious machine to Mars? Got some weapon start a war, let’s find a word – remove uncorrectable Russians phisically and few correcable convert to Catholics? Brr, that fantasy is so dark…
Well Stan,
We have to prepare our self to defend our homeland by ourself, without anybodys help. In a terms of an asimetric conflict, and superiority of the enemies, and possible cooperation of them.
We are not nuc, and we will not going to be. But keeping freedom and indepandence it is not a hopeless task anyway. We have some tradition of military resistance, and they are some good examples in Europe of such national defence system, based on national guard (Finnland, Sweden, Swiss). If we will do that, there is a chance, that after 50? 150? 250? years of peace, Russia and Germany will finally accept the fact, that there is some nation between them, which has its own, indepandent state, and there is noting ealse to do, than finnaly accept this fact.
The only chance to avoid repetition of the tragedy, which we know from the past, is to prepare ourself for military resitance as good, as only possible. At least as good, as Finns in 39′, but actually much more.
And about western guarranties… we remember how it worked in 39′.
Of course all above seems to be a dream right now, because the gouverment of Poland is controlled from Berlin.
But not forever, I hope.
And about conversion to Catholich Church. If there is anything what we can do for Russia and others, it is a good example, how to live as a free nation and avoid „modern madness” at the same time, nothig ealse.
Our bishops (FSSPX) asked us recently for „rosary crusade” for Russia, according to Her wish, expressed in Fatima. But although we as a Catholics should be obedient, the responce for this appeal in Poland is rather poor.
For us it’s hard to ask Saint Mary about specjal care for Russia, when Russia is a threat for Her own kingdoom – Polonia (She is a Queen of Poland, hopefully you know), which used to be „Semper Fidelis”. But if you are interested about the attitude of Catholic Church to Russia, mayby it might be interesting informations for you, which could complete the picture by this, what is the truth of our spirit. Not the „dark fantasy”.
Ernest, please, have a rest – I am repeating – all these horrors are only bad dream, dark fantasy. Don’t start again about our past – non-professional, high emotional opinion is not an argument for me and I hope for a majority of Poles. As for modern Russia – Poland is not in the top list of our economical (and absolutely out of political and military) concerns. Speaking about culture, education and all other humanitarian spheres it is a great pity for me and very few survived Poland’s friends here. It is so difficult to love Poland against its own will!
Stan,
In the best case you’re „zapadnik”, full of wishfull thinking. But I know a litlle Russia and Russians not only from media. They say that I speak and uderstund quite well russian. I’ve been to Moscow sveral times, and some other places too, during last few years.
And despite of the fact, that in privet you are lovly and charming people, I really feel what is going on. Somehow I feel even sorry… a sort of compassion for you. But when I realise, how terribly innocent are you – because unaware of POLITICAL EVIL – I mean the average Russians – and because of kinde of actions of your gouverment, which you support or tolerate…
Well Stan, this kinde of knowdlage is really terryfying.
When you read a book of Felshtinsky&Litvinyenko about the blats in Moscow 10 years ago, and you realise that many of moscows citizens knows exactly what was in this „sugar bugs” in the basements of the blocks, and WHO was REALLY conducting this act of terror, and they keep silent…
In this world, man kind is allways close to the hell, but a man who lives in Russia – is much closer. Beyond of the mask of „modern Russia” we can see the face, which we allready know very well.
It doesn’t mean that in Poland we are free of this bloody shit, but the scale is really differend. And being a Poles gives us a chance (not guarranty!) to remain free, in political sence of this word. Which determinate the other possible sences.
I don’t know what kind of Poland do you love. Poland which I love is a nation with uniq history, a nation who dicovered political freedom for ourself and who scryfyed a lot, to remain free. And that’s why sence of freedom is not something abstract. Not for us.
If I would compare Poland to a woman, she wouldn’t be the most beautyfull woman in the world. But her soul – yes, it would be!
It is not only the old english rule: right or wrong, my country. I love my country, because it gave me the most valiuable things, which people can ever have. And that’s why I have concenrs, about surviving in such… naighbourhood.
You write that my opinion are highly emotional. I agree, but are they wrong? Or is there anything wrong about having emotions? Are they less importante or real than buissnes or material power?
Or more generally: Is it possible at all to separate emotions form other importante aspects of life? I don’t thing so, Stan.
All the best, anyway.